Thoughts on Goodhart’s Law
Does it Mean Anything That This Macroeconomic Law Looks So Much Like an Effect in Quantum Physics?
Goodhart’s Law can be stated in a number of different ways; any measure which becomes a target ceases to be a good measure, when a measure becomes a target it ceases to be a good measure, any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes (this was Goodhart’s original formulation), entities who are aware of a system of rewards and punishments will optimize their actions within said system to achieve their desired results, a policy with a purpose that can be/is measured can be manipulated once that purpose is known (my own formulation), and many others. On the face of it they all appear to state something that had been known to quantum physics since well before Goodhart published his first paper on the topic in 1975, which is that observation/measurement of a (quantum) thing necessarily changes that thing (the observer effect which stems from Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle).
The vast, vast majority of quantum physicists will tell you that quantum effects have no impact on macro-scale human experienced reality (at least under non-exotic conditions like super high energy states or others which are not human survivable). All those “make your own reality through belief” people who lean on some quantum effect as their “scientific” justification are completely in error, as are those who try to find any links between consciousness and quantum physics. There can be no question that Goodhart’s law describes a macro-economic effect. Moreover, it is as much a psychological effect as an economic one. Human beings (conscious beings who want to optimize their position in an economic system that functions in the same or very close to the same manner as our global economic system does, to be more precise) by necessity have to be involved. This means human minds are a core element and that means human motives, human goals, etc. are primary “drivers” of the effect. Quantum effects (observer effects) are said to be human/consciousness neutral. The need for the “observer” to be conscious has been rejected by mainstream science as a misconception. It is nothing more than a poor understanding of the quantum wave function ψ and the quantum measurement process. This fundamental incompatibility would suggest there is no relationship other than coincidental between Goodhart’s law and the observer effect.
Probably a lot more to explore here but at the moment I am stumped. It seems to be a hell of a coincidence and they similarities are eerie. Why do I have such a hard time accepting the answer I just arrived at? Thoughts anyone or am I just crazy for even thinking this could be a thing? I gotta believe someone has explored this connection and published something about it. Anyone have a link?
